RACE

1 North Carolina

Candidate

Roy Cooper

MOVE

even

WHAT CHANGED

This race should have been competitive, but Cooper built a big lead and it’s holding steady

2 Alaska

Mary Peltola

↑1

With three of the four general election candidates now Republicans, Peltola now has a math advantage

3 Maine

Troy Jackson

↓1

Susan Collins will be very hard to beat, but this moves down because of AK math, not ME politics

4 Ohio

Sherrod Brown

even

Brown lost in 2024 because of dissatisfaction of Washington and might win in 2026 for the same reason

5 Texas

James Talarico

even

Democrats have been fooled by Texas before, but Talarico has the resources, message and opponent to win

RACE

OH-01

NEW RATING

D Advantage

MOVE

↑D

WHAT CHANGED

The GOP gerrymander focused on winning this seat, but Rep. Landsman is in good shape to win his third term

TX-28

D Advantage

↑D

Trump won this district by 11 points in 2024, but the Republican gains near the southern Texas/Mexico border are fading fast

CA-22

Toss Up

↑D

Randy Villegas is building the coalition and raising the money needed to flip this gerrymander-aided seat

PA-08

Toss Up

↑D

GOP Rep. Bresnahan’s aggressive stock trading and Paige Cognetti’s anti-corruption message could make the GOP Congressman a one-termer

IA-02

R Advantage

↑D

Just about every poll for every race is trending toward Democrats, so this former reach seat is squarely on the board