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The Newsletter · October 30, 2026

This Week In Democratic Politics

With just days to go before the election, we take a look at where things stand

Happy Friday. We did it Joe! We made it to the end. It’s the last weekend of the election. All of the ads. All of the rallies. All of the annoying campaign texts. It all comes down to the next 96 hours. Campaign staffers across the country are working nonstop, running on minutes of sleep, handfuls of trail mix, and a phone battery that won’t be fully charged until Wednesday.

It’s always a weird few days before an election. Campaigns have done everything they can, and once early voting ends the political world enters this unusual pause like the eye of a storm. All getting ready for Tuesday to slam on shore like the back half of a hurricane.

Our team here at The Caucus we’ll be watching it all play out and will have a full analysis on Wednesday and in the weeks ahead.

Read the full edition →
Jake Rakov
Co-Founder
Caucus+ Ratings
Top 5

The Republican-held Senate seats Democrats are most likely to flip. Read the weekly rankings →

1North CarolinaRoy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley · openExpected D
2AlaskaMary Peltola vs. Dan SullivanToss up
3MaineTroy Jackson vs. Susan CollinsToss up
4OhioSherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted · specialToss up
5TexasJames Talarico vs. Ken PaxtonToss up
Updated WednesdaysFull board at Caucus+ →

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01

The Latest

Reporting from the campaigns and the CapitolAll news →
02

Commentary

Opinion pieces about what matters nowAll commentary →
03

Q&A

Democratic newsmakers in their own wordsAll interviews →
04

2028

Tracking the Democratic presidential primaryMore →
05

Ratings

Where we see the race for Congress and 2028

Ranking the 9 GOP-Held Senate Seats Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: 1 Week Out

Rating Changes: 1 Week Out

The Top 25 House Districts Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: 8 Days Out

Ranking the 9 GOP-Held Senate Seats Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: 2 Weeks Out

Rating Changes: Two Weeks Out

The Top 25 House Districts Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: 2 Weeks Out

All Ratings Reports →
Caucus+506 races · 4,539 candidates

House

Democrats need 218 of 435
217Before the toss ups
1 short of 218. 19 toss ups. Democrats hold 215 now.

Senate

Democrats need 51 of 100
47Before the toss ups
4 short of 51. 7 toss ups. Democrats hold 47 now.

Governor

50 offices, 36 on the ballot
26Before the toss ups
5 toss ups. Democrats hold 23 now.
Every race, rated nightlyFundraising, outside spending and weekly movement for all 506.
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The Caucus

We're an independent news outlet covering the campaigns, policies, organizations, and politicians in the fight for the future of the Democratic Party. Not in terms of the constant horserace or as merely the responses to Republican attacks, but honest and fair reporting.

Jake Rakov
Co-Founder
Elias Isquith
Newsletter Writer
Kim Lyons
Reporter
Russell Payne
Reporter
Alex Rifaat
Reporter
Surina Venkat
Reporter
Nathalie Baptiste
Contributor
Samarth Gupta
Columnist
Aleigha Cavalier
Columnist
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