1. LEADING OFF

Happy Friday. We did it Joe! We made it to the end. It’s the last weekend of the election. All of the ads. All of the rallies. All of the annoying campaign texts. It all comes down to the next 96 hours. Campaign staffers across the country are working nonstop, running on minutes of sleep, handfuls of trail mix, and a phone battery that won’t be fully charged until Wednesday.

It’s always a weird few days before an election. Campaigns have done everything they can, and once early voting ends the political world enters this unusual pause like the eye of a storm. All getting ready for Tuesday to slam on shore like the back half of a hurricane. 

Every campaign season is unique for one reason or another, and this year may take the title for most unexpected. Looking back at the early predictions compared to where they are now, it’s almost hard to believe they are from the same cycle. The fact that long-standing Republican bastions like Texas, Kansas, and South Carolina are legitimately in play for Democrats is in and of itself worthy of study. The House is all but sold to go Blue on Tuesday, by how much now is the more interesting question. The Senate map is the one I, and most watchers, will be following. Positive polls and abysmal Republican candidates are giving Democrats a level of hope they haven’t felt since 2008, when they made it their literal slogan.

Our team here at The Caucus we’ll be watching it all play out and will have a full analysis on Wednesday and in the weeks ahead.  

The polls are all done, early voting is wrapping up and the only thing now is to get out the vote on Tuesday. If you haven’t voted, make a plan to get there on Election Day. 

Democracy, for all its strengths and weaknesses, only works if we participate in it. 

Thank you for being a part of our community! We are so thankful to have had you with us for our first election cycle. 

Go vote!

— Jake Rakov

2. A LOOK DOWN BALLOT

How Anti-ICE Sentiment Is Shaking Up Sheriff Races

By Nathalie Baptiste

In Frederick County, Maryland, just one hour from Washington, D.C., the sheriff’s election is being defined by immigration. Republican Sheriff Chuck Jenkins is facing a challenge from a Democrat Karl Bickel, who thinks the way the department is handling immigrants is detrimental to the county. Jenkins has been the sheriff in the county since 2006 and has become notorious in Frederick, which has seen an increase in the Latino population as working class families move further away from cities in search of affordability. 

Jenkins has been a Donald Trump supporter since the beginning. He told NPR in January 2025 that his department would be working hand-in-hand with the Trump administration. “Now, ICE is going to do their job. They're going to come into their communities all across the country,” he said. “They're going to target criminals, criminal gangs, cartels, public safety threats.” He’d already been accused of pursuing a stringent anti-immigrant agenda before Trump came back to power.

Bickel is looking to do a complete 180. He wants to serve as a check on ICE agents. “A lot of what ICE is doing, if a deputy did it they’d be fired or arrested,” he told Bolts Magazine last month. “The use of force, the utilization of chemical agents, things like that. It’s just not right.”

Sheriff elections are normally quiet affairs, as most candidates run unopposed or against nominal opposition. But with rising anti-ICE sentiment, some sheriff candidates now have the chance to capitalize on that backlash and make the case for why local police departments have no business partnering with the federal government in these cases. 

Finish reading the article at The Caucus.

3. WORTH A READ

What's Giving Democrats Confidence in Texas

The Caucus talked to a strategist working on the Talarico campaign about the race and state

By Russell Payne

Sherrod Brown Seeks a Return to the Senate

The political environment is similar to when he first won a senate seat in 2006

By Kim Lyons

With A House Victory All But Secured, Democrats Will Have Little Time to Decide How to Wield Power

Lawmakers are contemplating caucus rule changes and leadership challenges in anticipation of securing the lower chamber

By Surina Venkat

Democrats Favored in Early Vote, Buoyed By Minority Voters

In-person early voting is up compared to the last midterm in 2022

By Russell Payne

Corruption Shoots to Top of Voters’ Concerns Before Midterms

Surveys show government corruption has become a bigger issue for voters in the past year

By Surina Venkat

4. IN THE NEWS

• Major pollsters are starting to consolidate around the idea that the Senate is leaning Democratic, not a pure toss up anymore. The final CNN poll has Dr. Abdul El-Sayed up 7 in Michigan, James Talarico leading by 6 in Texas, and Troy Jackson (Maine) and Adam Hamilton (Kansas) both ahead by 4. The polls don’t have any of the Democrats cracking 50 percent, though. (CNN)

• With New Mexico vaulting ahead of other states to fourth on the Democratic presidential primary calendar in early 2028, politicians there are starting to get a lot more attention. “New Mexico has a role and responsibility to be able to shape who the next leader in the United States is going to be in 2028,” Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-NM) said. (Washington Sun)

• Former President Barack Obama seems to be relishing his public back-and-forth with President Donald Trump, as he’s targeting Trump more often on the campaign trail. After his Cheesecake Factory barb seemed to hit a nerve with his White House successor, Obama, at a Georgia rally, said Trump mobilized the whole government just to respond to his joke. (The Guardian)

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