Ranking the 9 GOP-Held Senate Seats Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: 2 Weeks Out
Annie Andrews moves into 8th as her campaign in South Carolina has momentum
Each week until Election Day, The Caucus ranks the Republican-held Senate seats Democrats are most likely to flip. Republicans hold 53 seats, so Democrats need to net four for the majority.
Two things moved this week: South Carolina and Florida trade places at the bottom of the list, and we shifted North Carolina to Expected D.
Third-quarter reports landed last week, and we have a full rundown of where each race stands money-wise. The Democratic candidate outraised the Republican in seven of these nine races. In Alaska, Ohio and Iowa that happened and the Democrat still goes into the last two weeks with less in the bank.
Here is Week 6, two weeks out:
| CAUCUS+ SENATE TOP 9 · WEEK 6 · 2 WEEKS OUT | ||
1 | North Carolina Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley · open | Expected D |
2 | Alaska Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan | Toss up |
3 | Maine Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins | Toss up |
4 | Ohio Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted · special | Toss up |
5 | Texas James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton | Toss up |
6 | Iowa Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson · open | Toss up |
7 | Kansas Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall | R Advantage |
8 ▲1 | South Carolina Annie Andrews vs. Darline Graham · appointed | Expected R |
9 ▼1 | Florida Angie Nixon vs. Ashley Moody · special | Expected R |
| South Carolina and Florida trade places. North Carolina moves to Expected D. | ||
1. North Carolina holds first, and the filings underline it: Roy Cooper banked $12.5 million against Michael Whatley's $916,000. Both parties are moving their money elsewhere.
2. Alaska is the clearest case of the pattern above, with Mary Peltola having raised $32.6 million to Sen. Dan Sullivan's $13.8 million and closing September with $3.2 million on hand to his $5.1 million.
3. Maine has not budged in the polling, where every survey taken since Oct. 8 puts Troy Jackson about two points up on Sen. Susan Collins. That either means he’s steadily ahead or can’t quite break away.
4. Ohio has Sherrod Brown finishing September with roughly half of Sen. Jon Husted's cash, $4.9 million to $8.9 million, after raising three times as much all cycle.
5. Texas leaves James Talarico with more cash than any other candidate here, $14.6 million against Ken Paxton's $4.9 million.
6. Iowa shows the tightest nonpartisan polling of the nine, an average under a point, while Rep. Ashley Hinson (IA-02) holds nearly double Josh Turek's cash, $6.9 million to $3.6 million.
7. Kansas sends Adam Hamilton into the close with three times Sen. Roger Marshall's cash, $3.2 million to $922,000, and the only two polls this month, both Republican, show it tied. This is teetering closer to being a true toss-up race.
8. South Carolina moves up one because Annie Andrews has raised $20.2 million to Sen. Darline Graham's $1.8 million, and the two Republican polls of the race put the gap at three and four points.
9. Florida slips to ninth on polling, where four surveys since Oct. 7 average six points for Sen. Ashley Moody, though Angie Nixon closes with more money, $4.1 million to $2.8 million.
And here are the Democratic-held seats that are not completely safe:
| SEATS DEMOCRATS ARE DEFENDING | ||
1 | Michigan Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers · open | Toss up |
2 | New Hampshire Chris Pappas vs. John E. Sununu · open | D Advantage |
3 | Minnesota Peggy Flanagan vs. Michele Tafoya · open | Expected D |
4 | Georgia Jon Ossoff vs. Mike Collins | Expected D |
| Ranked by risk of loss. None of the four moved this week. Democrats need all of them plus a net four pickups for 51. | ||
Michigan is still the closest Democratic hold seat, where former Rep. Mike Rogers was out-raised better than two to one and holds $6.5 million to Abdul El-Sayed's $3.8 million.
New Hampshire has Rep. Chris Pappas (NH-01) sitting on four times what John E. Sununu has raised all cycle, $21.5 million to $5.3 million.
Minnesota holds at Expected D, with Michele Tafoya reporting $2.1 million on hand at the end of September — which doesn’t seem like enough to catch up to Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan.
Georgia leaves Jon Ossoff with $26.3 million in the bank, more than double what Mike Collins has raised since the cycle began.
And this is how The Caucus sees the whole Senate map:
| SENATE RATINGS SUMMARY · DEMOCRATS NEED 51 | |||||
| CATEGORY | SEATS | D TOTAL | |||
| Safe D | 9 | 43 | |||
| Expected D | 3 | 46 | |||
| D Advantage | 1 | 47 | |||
| Toss up | 6 | ||||
| R Advantage | 2 | ||||
| Expected R | 2 | ||||
| Safe R | 12 | ||||
| No election 34 D, 31 R | 65 | ||||
HELD NOW  47 Democratic 53 Republican | |||||
| Democrats reach 47 without the toss ups, which is where they sit now, and 53 with all of them. | |||||
