Have Democrats Gotten Their Groove Back?

The election cycle is finally about to be over. You may either be thankful for that or sad about it, depending on your fanaticism. But either way, Election Day is next week. The first election I can remember being aware of was in 1996. That year saw President Bill Clinton win reelection but Americans also elected to have Republicans keep control of both houses in Congress. The nation seemed to endorse a divided government. While this year’s election isn’t a presidential, it does appear the American public is ready to endorse a divided government again. 

The polls, prediction markets, and pundits all seem aligned that Democrats will absolutely take the House, and the odds of taking the Senate are only increasing day by day. Earlier this year in conversations I had with my political industry friends of both stripes, it was already a fait accompli that the House would go blue, but the Senate was “such a bad map for Democrats.”

So what happened? Why did the Senate swing? Why did President Trump hold four rallies in Texas? Why is the GOP’s Senate super PAC flooding Kansas and Mississippi with ad money while abandoning North Carolina? Why did the last New York Times Poll find South Carolina’s U.S. Senate race tied, six days before the election?

Putting aside the self-inflicted wounds from the Trump administration’s tariffs, the costly Iran war, the abhorrent ICE crackdowns, and the absurd levels of self enriching the Trump family has achieved since being back in the White House, Democratic voters have done a particularly good job of voting for candidates in primaries with local authenticity rather than D.C. connections.

At a time when the Democratic brand is still not in the net positive, it is improving and better than Republicans. And this is exactly the kind of progress it will take to win back the voters who haven’t checked a Democratic ballot line in years. This cycle’s candidates are reintroducing the party at the local level as to what a Democrat can be: Dr. Annie Andrews a pediatrician in South Carolina; James Talarico a compassionate Christian Democrat in Texas; Adam Hamilton a Methodist minister in Kansas; Scott Colom a District Attorney in Mississippi running to be the state’s first Black Senator since Reconstruction; and Dr. Abdul El-Sayed a young pragmatic progressive public health advocate in Michigan. 

The Caucus ratings have Texas, Michigan, Kansas, and Maine as toss ups, while South Carolina as Expected Republican and Mississippi is a Safe Republican seat. But the polls are moving in the Democrats’ direction in every one of those states. Since polling is by its nature always backwards looking, election night will show if the momentum is real and if it has enough runway to take off. 

The Fall of the House of Johnson

The House map’s expansion for the Democrats may be the story of election night. Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson said as late as this week that he believes the Republicans will hold the majority in the House. While standing by your team is one thing, this level of optimism borders on delusion. 

Democratic challengers are showing strength even in districts Republican states redrew to their advantage. If Democrats are able to win those seats, and expand the count even further than the normal toss-up math, Republicans are going to have to have a very frank conversation internally about who is to blame. Johnson’s optimism won’t grant him any favors among angry incumbents who just saw their numbers slashed under his leadership.

The Dog that Caught the Car

The candidates this year have helped create the narrative that Democrats aren’t running on the usual platitudes of yesteryear. They are running on personal experience, connection to voters, and with the nerve to create actual change. Many of them bested the D.C. establishment’s preferred candidate in their primary because of those characteristics. 

So what do they do if or when they get to Congress? Rep. Hakeem Jeffries and Sen. Chuck Schumer are the presumptive names for Speaker and Senate Majority Leader, respectively, and they will have, arguably, one of the most politically diverse freshman classes in recent history. 

They likely won’t be able to get much done in the Senate, no one I have seen predicts them to flip enough Republicans in the chamber to overcome the 60 seats needed to pass substantial legislation. But the House can and should move forward on the things that would help Americans without GOP obstruction. Force Republicans to vote no on lowering healthcare costs, ending the Iran war, and even reclaiming Congress’ own Article One authorities. And this impressive incoming class appears, as of now, to have the wherewithal to take those votes. That is not something to squander.