1. LEADING OFF

Good morning. One week left.

As our Russell Payne writes, about 29 million Americans have already voted, and in all but five of the states that report it, more of those ballots came from registered Democrats than registered Republicans.

That count shows which party a voter registered with, but it doesn't show how they voted. And in a few of the races that matter most, Democrats are laser-focused on persuading voters who are registered as Independent — or even Republican — to vote for their candidate. 

In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton has said people who voted for Trump have a place in his campaign. In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews's campaign says more than 100 Republicans have joined its "Republicans for Annie" coalition. 

If those campaigns are finding the voters they're after, the early numbers undercount Democratic performance. If they aren't, a registration-based lead may only mean Democrats are voting earlier than Republicans this year. We'll know in a week.

Democratic Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear is relying on a similar strategy for his not-yet-official 2028 presidential campaign. As our Surina Venkat writes, he argues the party's next presidential nominee should be a governor, pointing to his own record in a state that, as he puts it, voted for Trump by 30-plus points.

Below, you'll find the seven races we moved this week, every one toward Democrats; a Kansas senator who went into October with less than a third of his challenger's cash; and Barack Obama on TV in Maryland for a redistricting amendment that trailed 53 percent to 25 percent in a recent poll.

— Elias Isquith

2. WHO’S VOTED ALREADY

Democrats Favored in Early Vote, Buoyed By Minority Voters

By Russell Payne

With just over a week until Election Day, early votes are pouring in with returns favoring Democrats in almost every state. In some states, rates of early voting are even on track to surpass previous midterms.

So far in 2026, voters across the country have cast around 29 million early votes, with over 14 million cast in person and 14 million cast via an absentee ballot. For context, in 2022 a total of 46 million voters voted early with 20 million voting in person and 25 million voting by mail. The numbers are still a far reach from 2024 early voting rates, in which the presidential election saw some 86 million total early votes cast.

The early vote has also jumped in key states, including Texas, where, according to the University of Florida Election Lab early vote tracker, the early vote has already surpassed 51% of the total early vote recorded in 2022. Similarly, in North Carolina, voters have already returned nearly 42% of the total early vote from the last midterm election. In Georgia, the total is already around 45% of the early vote recorded in 2022.

In all but five states that record early vote data, the returns appear to be favoring Democrats, as measured by the party registration of the voters casting their ballots. Notably in Nebraska, Democrats are currently ahead by nearly 14 points by party registration. Similarly, in Iowa, Democrats are favored by about 10 points.

According to Michael McDonald, who runs the Election Lab, the early vote turnout bump is in part fueled by high rates of voting by Black and Hispanic voters across the south.

This data comes even as some signs suggest that a portion of voters have serious concerns as to whether or not their mail-in ballot will be properly counted, owing to threats of interference by the Trump administration.

According to a Pew Research survey, about 25 percent of voters said that they are not confident that ballots would be delivered to voters with enough time to return them. Over 30 percent said that they were not confident that the Postal Service would return mail-in ballots to election offices in time for their ballots to be counted.

Among voters inclined to support Democrats, 28 percent said that they were not confident that the Postal Service would deliver their ballots in time to be counted. Among Republican leaning voters, 35 percent said the same.

3. OUR LATEST RANKINGS

We moved seven races this week, and every one of them moved toward the Democrat.

Three became Toss Ups, our rating for races either party could win. One is the Kansas Senate race (more on that below). The other two are House seats Republicans are defending without an incumbent: Iowa's 2nd District, which Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson left to run for Senate, and North Carolina's 11th, where Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards dropped his reelection bid in August.

Three more went from Toss Up to D Advantage, our rating for competitive races that lean Democratic: Arizona's 1st and 6th Districts and Colorado's 8th.

The seventh, Florida's 25th District, went the same way. Republicans redrew Florida's map, in part, to flip a seat to their party. Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz (FL-23) is running in it all the same.

As of now, our ratings have 217 House seats leaning Democratic or better, one short of the 218 it takes to elect a Speaker. Nineteen toss-ups could go either way.

To find out why a Colorado seat moved toward the Democrat even though the last public poll there had the Republican ahead, read the full ratings analysis at The Caucus.

4. BLEEDING KANSAS

Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, and Trump carried the state by 16 points in 2024.

So it says something that Trump flew to Park City, near Wichita, last week to rally for Republican Senator Roger Marshall. Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Kansas City-area pastor, called the visit a compliment to his campaign.

He has reason to. Marshall went into October with about $922,000 in the bank. Hamilton had $3.2 million.

This week, we moved the race from R Advantage, our rating for competitive races that lean Republican, to Toss Up. In a state like Kansas, that alone is news.

To find out how many Senate seats Democrats would reach if every Toss Up broke their way, read the full ratings analysis at The Caucus.

5. AD WATCH: "I'M COUNTING ON YOU"

Former President Barack Obama is back on Maryland TV. In a 30-second ad released yesterday, he asks Marylanders to vote yes on Question 3.

Question 3 is a front in the gerrymandering wars. It would amend the state constitution so that rules mandating compact, connected districts no longer apply to congressional maps, which could put Republican Rep. Andy Harris (MD-01), the only Republican in the state's congressional delegation, at serious risk.

Obama sells it as a response to Republicans redrawing maps in other states. "You can help stop this Republican power grab by voting Yes on Question 3," he says. Maryland Governor Wes Moore's campaign says it is putting $500,000 behind the ad, focusing on Baltimore and D.C.

The amendment needs the help. In a UMBC Institute of Politics poll of likely voters taken September 22 to 27, just 25 percent said they'd vote yes and 53 percent said no. UMBC's polling also has Moore leading his Republican challenger 51 percent to 24 percent.

Maryland voters like their Democratic governor. A ballot initiative intended to fight the fire of Republican gerrymandering with the fire of a Democratic response, however, seems to be a tougher sell.

Democrats' hope, and it's not an unreasonable one, is that 30 seconds of Obama will convince voters that what they thought was a confusing amendment is actually a simple choice.

6. IN THE NEWS

• Democratic Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, who is weighing a 2028 presidential bid, says the party's next nominee should be a governor who can show they built housing and raised wages, Surina Venkat writes. Democrats last nominated a governor for president in 1992 (The Caucus).

• The Justice Department will send federal election monitors to polling places in Allegheny, Lehigh, Luzerne and Philadelphia counties on Election Day, part of a plan for about 1,000 monitors nationwide, though monitors can only observe (Pennsylvania Capital-Star).

• Trump scheduled a rally in Mississippi yesterday for Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, a state he won by nearly 23 points, after the Senate Democrats' top super PAC put $1.2 million behind Democrat Scott Colom (Mississippi Today).