Rating Changes: 1 Week Out

Each week until Election Day, The Caucus reviews our full board and reports every race that changed.

Seven races moved this week and every one was toward the Democratic candidate. The Kansas Senate race became a toss up, and so did Iowa's 2nd and North Carolina's 11th. Arizona's 1st, Arizona's 6th and Colorado's 8th were toss ups a week ago and now favor the Democrat.

In the House, Democrats are at 217 seats strongly or at least leaning in their favor, according to our ratings, with 19 toss ups and 8 more where Republicans have the advantage but the seat is still winnable. It takes 218 to elect a House Speaker. Senate Democrats reach 47 without the toss ups and 54 with all seven.

KS-SEN, now Toss up. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. Trump rallied for Sen. Roger Marshall near Wichita last week, showing the GOP thinks this is a real race. Marshall ended September with $922,090 in the bank against Democrat Adam Hamilton's $3.18 million.

AZ-01, now D Advantage. Outside groups have spent about $2.7 million attacking Democrat Amish Shah. The money is going where Republicans see the risk. Shah's $3.2 million third quarter was more than he had raised in the entire cycle before July.

IA-02, now Toss up. Rep. Ashley Hinson left the seat to run for Senate. Democrat Lindsay James raised more than $2 million over the summer against Republican Joe Mitchell's $745,000, though she spent nearly all of it and went into October with $701,000 on hand to his $869,000. Iowa now has two House seats at D Advantage, one at Toss up and a Senate race rated the same.

AZ-06, now D Advantage. Democrat JoAnna Mendoza outraised Rep. Juan Ciscomani better than three to one in the third quarter, $3.1 million to $911,000, and finished it with $1.53 million on hand against his $927,000. He has leaned on party committees and transfers for about 40 percent of his money this cycle.

CO-08, now D Advantage. The last public poll here came from McLaughlin and Associates, surveying for a conservative group backing Rep. Gabe Evans, and it had him up 48 to 46 in mid-September. Democrat Manny Rutinel then posted a $4.24 million quarter, a Colorado record for a House candidate. Evans is still sitting on more cash, $2.74 million to $1.82 million.

FL-25, now D Advantage. Republicans redrew Florida and built a new 25th to try and flip a seat, as Trump carried those lines 54.2 to 45.0. Rep. Jared Moskowitz, the Democrat who was elected in the 23rd, is running in it anyway, and we rate the seat three tiers more Democratic than its presidential math.

NC-11, now Toss up. Rep. Chuck Edwards dropped out of the race in August amid reports of inappropriate conduct, and the state party installed Jennifer Balkcom, a state representative, with about three months to run. She raised $355,134 between July and September and had $295,084 left at the end of it. About 71 percent of her money has come from political committees. Democrat Jamie Ager raised $2.3 million over the same stretch and had $1.6 million.

Where our board stands after this week:

HOUSE RATINGS SUMMARY · DEMOCRATS NEED 218
CATEGORY		SEATS	D TOTAL
Safe D		185	185
Expected D		21	206
D Advantage		11	217
Toss up		19
R Advantage		8
Expected R		14
Safe R		177
HELD NOW  214 Democratic     218 Republican  1 independent     2 vacant
Both vacancies are holds, TX-23 for Republicans and FL-20 for Democrats, so Democrats count 215 toward 218. They reach 217 without the toss ups and 236 with all of them.