Ranking the 9 GOP-Held Senate Seats Democrats Are Most Likely to Flip: Final Rankings
Ohio and Maine passed Alaska on our list
Each week, The Caucus has ranked the Republican-held Senate seats that Democrats are most likely to flip. Republicans hold 53 seats, and Democrats need to net four for the majority.
This is our last edition and two ratings moved, both toward Democrats. New Hampshire goes from D Advantage to Expected D, and South Carolina climbs from Expected R into R Advantage.
The order shifted more than the ratings did. Alaska drops two spots, Ohio and Maine each move up one, and Kansas and Iowa trade places. Every one of those moves came from a Democrat gaining ground or a Republican losing it.
Here’s our final board:
| CAUCUS+ SENATE TOP 9 · WEEK 8 · FINAL RATINGS | ||
1 | North Carolina Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley · open | Expected D |
2 ▲1 | Ohio Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted · special | Toss up |
3 ▲1 | Maine Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins | Toss up |
4 ▼2 | Alaska Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan | Toss up |
5 | Texas James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton | Toss up |
6 ▲1 | Kansas Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall | Toss up |
7 ▼1 | Iowa Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson · open | Toss up |
8 | South Carolina Annie Andrews vs. Darline Graham · appointed | R Advantage |
9 | Florida Angie Nixon vs. Ashley Moody · special | Expected R |
| Alaska slips two spots, with Ohio and Maine each moving up one. Kansas and Iowa trade places. South Carolina leaves Expected R for R Advantage, the only rating change on the board. | ||
Three of the four Democratic seats worth watching look like holds. Michigan is the one we still rate a toss up. Abdul El-Sayed and former Rep. Mike Rogers are running for an open seat there, and that race alone could settle the majority.
| SEATS DEMOCRATS ARE DEFENDING | ||
1 | Michigan Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers · open | Toss up |
2 | New Hampshire Chris Pappas vs. John E. Sununu · open | Expected D |
3 | Minnesota Peggy Flanagan vs. Michele Tafoya · open | Expected D |
4 | Georgia Jon Ossoff vs. Mike Collins | Expected D |
| Ranked by risk of loss. New Hampshire moves up to Expected D, which leaves Michigan as the only seat Democrats are defending that we still rate a toss up. They need all four plus a net four pickups for 51. | ||
And this is how The Caucus sees the whole Senate map:
| SENATE RATINGS SUMMARY · DEMOCRATS NEED 51 | |||||
| CATEGORY | SEATS | D TOTAL | |||
| Safe D | 9 | 43 | |||
| Expected D | 4 | 47 | |||
| D Advantage | 0 | ||||
| Toss up | 7 | ||||
| R Advantage | 2 | ||||
| Expected R | 1 | ||||
| Safe R | 12 | ||||
| No election 34 D, 31 R | 65 | ||||
HELD NOW  47 Democratic 53 Republican | |||||
| Democrats reach 47 without the toss ups, which is where they sit now, and 54 with all seven. | |||||
