This Week In Democratic Politics
Big-state early voting begins, surrogates are stumping across the country and more seats are in play than ever
1. LEADING OFF
Happy Friday, only 11 days left!
Early voting began this week in Texas and Florida, two of the most-watched states this cycle. So of course now pundits and talking heads have a new set of numbers to play with and pontificate on. The tl;dr of it is: Many places have broken early voting records, which is a good sign for Democrats who usually make up the majority of early voters.
The Caucus' Russell Payne got a hold of Michael MacDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Florida who runs the leading resource on early voting at the University of Florida Election Lab.
"So far we're seeing robust turnout in states where we've started in-person early voting. We're seeing levels that are above 2018 and 2022," MacDonald told Russell. "Right now the numbers generally across the board are higher than they were in the last two [midterm] elections."
PAC money is being cut and shuffled around like a poker deck in Vegas. Billionaire Michael Bloomberg came in with an $80 million windfall for the Democrats. Our Surina Venkat wrote about the move and where exactly he's putting it. On the other side, Elon Musk and Donald Trump's PACs are flooding states trying to shore up candidates that weren't even on Democrats' dream board three months ago.
Votes are being cast as we speak and big names are, right on cue, hitting the road. The move now is not persuasion but motivation, i.e. getting your folks off the couch and into the voting booths. Watch who shows up where.
Obama in Georgia with Jon Ossoff and Keisha Lance Bottoms makes perfect sense, while AOC was in Maine with Democratic Senate candidate Troy Jackson, which I thought was an interesting choice for both her and him. Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy is spending time all over the country from Florida with Angie Nixon to Tennessee, where he stumped for Justin J. Pearson the Democrat State House Member running in the redrawn 9th Congressional District. A Senator coming to stump for Pearson is a great get for him, I just wonder how high Murphy's name ID is in Tennessee.
John Quincy Adams famously paraphrased Shakespeare once when he said, politics makes strange bedfellows. That statement is never more true than the last sprint before election day.
— Jake Rakov
2. CANDIDATE PROFILE: JAMIE AGER (NC-11)
When Republicans gerrymandered North Carolina last year in an effort to ensure as many of their candidates as possible made it to Congress, they didn't change the 11th District at all. Now, they're probably regretting not shoring it up. Jamie Ager is the Democrat trying to flip the district that The Caucus moved to a Toss Up this week.
Our Surina Venkat profiled the hotly contested race that pits a fourth-generation farmer against a substitute candidate on the Republican side. Read Surina's story at The Caucus.
3. WORTH A READ
4. IN THE NEWS
House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries (NY-08) is gaining confidence that he'll have the Speaker's gavel come January. At a campaign event in Ohio this week, after saying that Democrats are "on the verge" of taking power, Jeffries added, "On the other side of this election, I think what will unite House Democrats is the fact that we know things are broken in this country." (Associated Press)
Rep. Chris Deluzio (PA-17) reiterated that he is giving "serious thought" to challenging embattled Sen. John Fetterman in the Democratic primary in 2028. A number of current and former Pennsylvania elected officials are also considering the race, and there are rumors that Fetterman could change parties or run as an independent as his poll numbers among Democratic voters continue to sink. (Politico)
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) announced that it will stop endorsing candidates, providing PAC checks, and publicly bundling money for campaigns. This comes after an election cycle where support from the organization became a major campaign issue in dozens of Democratic primaries across the country. (NPR)
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