The House Could Come Down to One Race
Plus: The week ahead, the latest reader question, and our new rankings.
1. LEADING OFF
Good morning. Eight days to go. Barely more than a week.
Democrats need 218 seats to win the House. By our count, they're at 217 before a single toss up goes their way. A week ago, they were at 213.
So if the races they lead hold, Democrats need to win just one race that’s currently too close to call to win a majority, make Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (NY-08) the first Black Speaker of the House in U.S. history, and alter the trajectory of President Trump's final two years in office.
Republicans, meanwhile, are in triage mode. Instead of trying to expand their majority, they're pouring money into House seats Trump won by five or 10 points in 2024. As one forecaster told The Caucus's Russell Payne, it's the spending — not the spin — that tells you where Republicans really stand.
Below, you'll find Kim Lyons on a Pennsylvania Republican who now says Trump doesn't speak for him, what a new poll of four Pennsylvania seats says about Democrats' path to the House, a Florida reader asking whether governor's races are a better bet for Democrats than the Senate, and the issue that's now worrying voters more than grocery prices.
— Elias Isquith
2. THE WEEK AHEAD
Here's where Trump is going this week, and where former President Barack Obama is going instead. All times are Eastern.
Today:
Trump rallies at 7 pm in Corinth, Mississippi, for Republican Mississippi Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, who's facing Democrat Scott Colom. Trump won the state by 23 points, and we still rate the race Safe R.
Tuesday:
Trump holds rallies in Lubbock and Waco for Republican Ken Paxton, whose race against Democrat James Talarico we rate a Toss Up.
Wednesday:
Trump is in Chillicothe, Ohio, at 7 pm, his third Ohio stop this month, for Republican Ohio Senator Jon Husted and Republican gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy. We rate both races Toss Ups.
Obama rallies in Atlanta from 4 to 7 pm with Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff and Keisha Lance Bottoms, the Democratic nominee in a governor's race we rate a Toss Up.
Friday:
We rate Mississippi's Senate race Safe R. Republicans are sending Trump there anyway.
Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters says the reason is turnout: getting Trump's voters to show up for a midterm.
3. ANOTHER REPUBLICAN RUNS FROM TRUMP
In 2024, Republican Rep. Scott Perry (PA-10) beat Democrat Janelle Stelson, a former local TV news anchor, by about 5,100 votes.
Now it's a rematch, and a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll released Sunday has them tied at 48 percent.
As our Kim Lyons writes, Stelson out-raised Perry nearly two to one from July through September, $2.32 million to $1.26 million. And Perry, one of the Republicans most closely tied to Trump in any swing seat, now says Trump doesn't speak for him.
That's a hard sell in a district Trump won by just five points.
To find out how Stelson, a registered Republican until her first run, is pitching herself to Perry's voters, read Kim Lyons's full story at The Caucus.
4. THE PIVOTAL KEYSTONE STATE
Four seats on this week's Top 25 are in Pennsylvania, more than in any other state. The New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll released Sunday tested all four.
Democrats lead in three. Bob Brooks is up five points on Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (PA-07), Paige Cognetti is up five on Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan (PA-08), and Bob Harvie is up two on Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01). The fourth is the tied race above.
Harvie still slipped to 11th on our list. Not because his race looks worse for Democrats, however, but because three other seats suddenly look even better.
To find out more about this week's biggest drop, read the full rankings at The Caucus.
5. ARE GOVERNORS A BETTER BET?
Joyce in Florida asks:
"What are some of the races for governor that we should be watching? Do Democrats have as many chances to flip those as they do Senate seats?"
Thanks, Joyce. The short answer is yes. In fact, the gubernatorial map may actually be better for Democrats than the Senate one.
Thirty-six states elect a governor this year, and Democrats hold 23 governorships right now. Counting only the races we rate as leaning their way or better, they move from 23 to 26 — before a single toss-up breaks their way.
The Senate looks different. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority there, and by the same count they're at 47. They'd have to win four of the six toss-ups to have a majority.
In other words, Democrats need to sweep the closest Senate races, whereas, in governors’ races, they're already likely to be ahead before any of the nail-biters are decided.
The five governor race toss-ups to watch are: Alaska, Georgia, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin. In Ohio, Democrat Amy Acton faces Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. In Georgia, Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms faces Republican billionaire Rick Jackson.
And keep an eye on your own state of Florida. We rate the race there as R Advantage, which means it still leans Republican but is close enough to be competitive. The same goes for Kansas, and Texas too.
At the very least, the Democratic Governors Association is spending like it sees the same map: As our Surina Venkat writes, they've dropped at least $73 million in 10 states so far.
Have a question of your own? Send it to [email protected].
7. IN THE NEWS
Democrats lead the generic ballot, which asks which party voters want running Congress, by about 8 points on average, and recent New York Times/Siena, CNN/SSRS and Verasight polls put the lead at 10 points or more, Russell Payne writes. (The Caucus)
A record 89 percent of Americans now say government corruption is widespread, according to Gallup, and a new CNBC survey found more people ranking corruption as a top issue than grocery prices, Surina Venkat writes. (The Caucus)
Democrat Scott Colom's path to winning Mississippi's Senate race runs through huge Black turnout plus roughly a quarter of white voters. It's a sensible approach, but it hasn't worked for a Democrat in the state in more than 40 years. (Washington Post)
