Pennsylvania Democrats Have a Chance for a Trifecta in State Government

Pennsylvania has one of the few divided legislatures in the country, with Democrats controlling the House and Republicans controlling the Senate. But that may be about to change, with Democrats optimistic they could win a trifecta in Harrisburg – control of the House, Senate and governor’s office — for the first time in more than 30 years.

Gov. Josh Shapiro has touted his ability to work with a divided legislature as evidence of his political chops. “We managed to find compromise – without compromising our core values – and we passed a state budget that invests in our schools, grows our economy, expands our workforce, and makes our communities safer,” he told The Caucus in September.

But the situation has also made it difficult for him to get parts of his agenda passed. Senate Republicans have hampered efforts to fund public transportation in the state’s urban centers and prevented Democrats from codifying abortion rights into the state’s Constitution. They’ve also prevented a raise in Pennsylvania’s minimum wage, which remains at the federal minimum. 

“Our minimum wage in Pennsylvania has been stuck at $7.25 an hour for the last 16 years. In that time, every single one of our neighboring states has raised the wage for their workers,” Shapiro said during his annual budget address in February. “The House of Representatives has passed legislation to increase our minimum wage twice. And each time, the Senate refused to act.”

So Shapiro, a prolific fundraiser who retains high approval ratings as he nears the end of his first term, is spending his considerable political capital to help the state party and solidify Democrats’ chances in November and beyond.

The Pennsylvania Democratic Party launched its “Rise Up Pennsylvania” initiative in July, an “unprecedented coordinated campaign effort in the Commonwealth’s midterm history” to further build out the party’s state organization. Shapiro contributed $3.3 million to the effort.  

Democrats control the House 103 to 100 and Republicans have 27 Senate seats, compared to Democrats’ 23 seats. As long as he and Shapiro win reelection, Democratic Lt. Gov. Austin Davis would be the tiebreaking vote in any impasse. So if Democrats add two seats in the Senate for a tie, they could win the triple play. 

Pennsylvania Democrats appear to have focused on three Philadelphia-area state Senate districts (the 6th, the 16th and the 24th) as key flips for their trifecta hopes.

On Friday, Louis Jacobson of election prediction site Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said Pennsylvania’s Senate has shifted from a "leans Republican” ranking to “toss up.”  The state House also shifted in the latest analysis, from “leans Democratic” to “likely Democratic.”

Shapiro seems likely to win reelection next month and has made moves that suggest he’s eyeing a 2028 run for president, which would surprise exactly no one who has paid attention to Pennsylvania politics in the past four years. This week he launched a federal political action committee, the New Path PAC, that would allow him to raise money for the four Democratic challengers he’s backing for Pennsylvania’s Congressional seats: Bob Harvie in PA-01, Bob Brooks in PA-07, Paige Cognetti in PA-07 and Janelle Stelson in PA-10 

But in the short term, he’s deflecting questions about 2028, and focusing on the midterms. He just announced a slew of candidates he’s backing in the state House races.

“This November, we have a real opportunity to do something that Pennsylvania has not been able to do since 1992 — win a Democratic trifecta in Harrisburg,” Shapiro said in a statement “With a Democratic trifecta, we can finally raise the minimum wage to $15/hour, build more affordable housing, codify abortion rights into law, pass statute of limitations reforms that are long overdue, and so much more. This fight starts with keeping control of the state House and expanding our majority with leaders who will fight for Pennsylvanians every day.”