1. LEADING OFF

Good morning. Twelve days to go.

Want a gut-check on how the campaign's going for Republicans in the final stretch? Look to South Carolina, one of the most Republican states in the country. In 2024, President Trump won the Palmetto State by 18 points. 

Last night, he rallied there for a Republican senator, whose race we moved up our list this week. Some of the president's political money is being dispatched, too: his super PAC is now spending in House seats Republicans won comfortably just two years ago.

With 12 days left, in other words, Republicans are spending money — and the president's time — defending South Carolina. 

Democrats, meanwhile, aren't talking about whether they'll win so much as they're arguing about how to make the most out of the momentum they believe they have already.

Michael Bloomberg, for one, is pushing his chips in. As The Caucus’s Surina Venkat writes, he's putting $80 million behind Democrats because, as Bloomberg's longtime adviser Howard Wolfson has put it, the difference between a 221-seat House majority and a 230-seat one "really matters."

But that doesn't mean an across-the-board Democratic victory is secured. 

The Democratic-held Senate seat we see as most at risk, Michigan, is within two points among likely voters in a new poll, and as our Russell Payne writes, the early vote shows Republicans still competitive in Maine and Iowa.

Below, you'll find our Hill column on what House members who lose will be doing between Election Day and January (hint: there's a basement cubicle involved, and possibly bourbon), Russell Payne on which voters are turning out early so far, and the rest of this week's Ups and Downs.

— Elias Isquith

2. WHAT HAPPENS TO THE LOSERS?

Members of Congress who lose on November 3 keep their seats until January 3. But the government is only funded through December 11. 

That means members who were just voted out could help decide whether the government shuts down two weeks before Christmas.

In this week's On the Hill column, The Caucus's Capitol Hill insider lays out three possible scenarios, depending on which party wins the House. In each one, simply getting members who have lost (many of whom would rather be on the couch or lining up their next job) to come back and vote is a problem.

Meanwhile, the members who lose and do come back will be sharing the building with the people who beat them, who arrive that same week for orientation. And, yes, it can be quite awkward:

The person who beat you, here for freshman orientation with a fresh haircut and a new lanyard. You're going to pass each other in the Rayburn hallway. You're going to wait for the same elevator.

To find out how a member who lost can spend December lining up a K Street job without technically lobbying, read the full On the Hill column at The Caucus.

3. WHO ISN’T VOTING EARLY?

In states where in-person early voting has started, turnout is running above 2018 and 2022, Michael McDonald, the University of Florida political scientist who runs one of the main early-voting trackers, told The Caucus’s Russell Payne.

Democrats usually vote early more than Republicans do, so an early Democratic edge doesn't prove much on its own. But McDonald says registered Republicans are voting at lower rates than he'd expect in most states, given how high turnout is overall. 

He also says Republicans remain competitive in close races like Maine and Iowa.

To find out which group of Republicans is voting at lower rates in North Carolina than in either of the last two midterms, read Russell Payne's full story at The Caucus.

4. WHY TRUMP IS CAMPAIGNING IN SOUTH CAROLINA

Democrats haven't won a statewide race in South Carolina since 2006. Trump carried the state by 18 points in 2024.

So it's worth noticing that he rallied for Republican Senator Darline Graham last night at Clemson University, in the Upstate, the area where she did worst in her primary.

Graham was appointed in July after her brother, the late Senator Lindsey Graham, died, and she beat Republican Rep. Ralph Norman (SC-05) in a runoff for the nomination.

Her opponent, Democrat Annie Andrews, is a pediatrician who raised $9.4 million from July through September. Graham's campaign started October with about $610,000 in the bank.

But that's before you include spending by outside groups. Counting super PAC spending, the pro-Graham side has outspent Andrews by about $3 million over the past several weeks, according to a Post and Courier analysis. Meanwhile, the Senate Leadership Fund, the main GOP Senate super PAC, is putting $5 million behind Graham.

This week, The Caucus moved South Carolina up to eighth on our list of the Republican-held Senate seats Democrats are most likely to flip. To find out which seat South Carolina passed on its way up, read the full rankings at The Caucus.

5. UPS AND DOWNS

👍 Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by seven points among Michigan's registered voters in the state's Senate race, according to a new Marist poll.

👎 Among likely voters, the people Marist expects to actually show up, his lead is two. El-Sayed needs voters who might otherwise stay home, and Michigan is the Democratic-held Senate seat we see as most at risk in our latest Senate rankings.

👍 Immigration has stopped working for Trump. In the October Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll, released yesterday, his ratings on immigration, border security and deportations all hit new lows, and Republicans no longer have an edge over Democrats on immigration or deportations.

👎 His administration is taking the issue to people's front doors anyway. CBS News found armed, uniformed Homeland Security agents knocking on doors in several states, asking residents about their immigration status and whether they've voted. Since Trump took office, according to the Justice Department, 156 people — out of 227 million registered voters — have been charged with voting-fraud offenses.

6. IN THE NEWS

• MAGA Inc., Trump's main super PAC, spent $75.5 million in the first two weeks of October alone and still had $164.3 million in the bank as of October 14, with Trump-aligned groups now spending in House seats Republicans won comfortably in 2024. (CNBC)

• Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is spending $80 million to help Democrats, at least $50 million of it on House races, because his team wants a big Democratic majority rather than a bare 218, Surina Venkat writes. (The Caucus)

• Democrats lead Republicans 54 to 42 percent among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot, which asks which party people want running the House, their biggest lead in 17 rounds of the Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll. (Strength In Numbers)

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