Democrats' Fundraising Lead Has a Catch
Plus: A potential historic shift in Pennsylvania and some 2028 tea leaves.
1. LEADING OFF
Good morning. Thirteen days to go.
Two numbers run through today's issue: four and two.
Nationally, Democrats need to flip four more Republican seats than they lose to win the U.S. Senate. In Pennsylvania, meanwhile, they need to flip two state Senate seats to potentially control the governor's office and the legislature for the first time since 1992.
In both cases, a small number of campaigns will decide which party holds power. And the consequences could be massive. In Pennsylvania, for example, it could lead to the state raising its minimum wage for the first time in 16 years. On the national level, it could decide which party controls the U.S. Senate.
Below, you'll find our latest Senate rankings, including the Democrat who has raised more than twice what her opponent has and still has less cash; Kim Lyons on the tie-breaking vote that could hand Pennsylvania Democrats control; Surina Venkat on the state races GOP billionaires are paying for; and our latest look at some 2028 tea leaves.
— Elias Isquith
2. HOW DO YOU RAISE $32 MILLION AND END UP WITH LESS?
Democrats out-raised Republicans in seven of the nine GOP-held Senate seats in our latest rankings. But in Alaska and Ohio, the Democrats have less money left than the Republicans.
They made a strategic bet to spend more earlier. In 13 days, they'll learn if it was the right one.
This week's rankings also have one Republican-held seat climbing the list and another sliding down it.
| CAUCUS+ SENATE TOP 9 · WEEK 6 · 2 WEEKS OUT | ||
1 | North Carolina Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley · open | Expected D |
2 | Alaska Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan | Toss up |
3 | Maine Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins | Toss up |
4 | Ohio Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted · special | Toss up |
5 | Texas James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton | Toss up |
6 | Iowa Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson · open | Toss up |
7 | Kansas Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall | R Advantage |
8 ▲1 | South Carolina Annie Andrews vs. Darline Graham · appointed | Expected R |
9 ▼1 | Florida Angie Nixon vs. Ashley Moody · special | Expected R |
| South Carolina and Florida trade places. North Carolina moves to Expected D. | ||
To see why two seats traded places, and why we think Kansas is getting closer to a true toss-up, read the full rankings at The Caucus.
3. ONE VOTE COULD DECIDE WHO RUNS PENNSYLVANIA’S SENATE
Democrats already hold the Pennsylvania House, 103 to 100. The state Senate is 27 to 23 Republican.
As our Kim Lyons reports, two Democratic pickups would produce a 25-25 tie. If Governor Josh Shapiro and Lieutenant Governor Austin Davis win reelection, Davis's tie-breaking vote would give Democrats control over the state senate for the first time in decades.
Shapiro has given $3.3 million to the state party's push. He has governed alongside a Republican-led state Senate for his entire first term, and a Democratic one would let him pass bills it has blocked — including ones, like raising the state's minimum wage, that could give a potential Shapiro 2028 campaign extra juice.
To find out which three Philadelphia-area districts Democrats are counting on, read Kim Lyons's full story at The Caucus.
4. GOP BILLIONAIRES TARGET DOWN-BALLOT
Billionaires had put $433 million into this cycle's races by late July, and 80 percent of it went to Republicans.
But as our Surina Venkat writes, a new report from Oath, a Democratic fundraising platform, shows Republican billionaires aren't only outspending Democratic ones in races for Congress. They're doing it down the ballot, too.
To find out which GOP megadonors are behind the money in Wisconsin, Texas, Ohio, and Minnesota, read Surina Venkat's full story at The Caucus.
5. 2028 WATCH
Two possible Democratic candidates for president in 2028, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris, are both focusing on New Hampshire.
The state isn't first on the Democrats' calendar anymore (technically... it's complicated), but the DNC's new lineup still puts its 2028 primary third, after South Carolina and Nevada.
New Hampshire also has an open Senate seat, with Rep. Chris Pappas (NH-01) facing former Republican Senator John E. Sununu in a race we rate D Advantage.
So a visit lets a potential 2028 candidate simultaneously help a Senate nominee and meet with voters — and local powerbrokers — who will decide one of 2028's first primaries.
California Governor Gavin Newsom rallied with Pappas in Exeter on Saturday.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris is due in New Hampshire to campaign with Pappas on Saturday, October 24, one stop on a final swing that also includes Nevada, Mississippi, Wisconsin, and Georgia.
6. IN THE NEWS
Rep. Ro Khanna (CA-17) will campaign in Nebraska on Saturday with independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn at a town hall that also features former Montana Governor Marc Racicot and former Illinois GOP Rep. Joe Walsh. (CBS News)
Senate Majority PAC, the super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), is spending $1.2 million on a TV ad for Democrat Scott Colom against Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi, a state Trump won by nearly 23 points. (Associated Press)
GOP-aligned groups have spent or reserved more than $100 million on ads in Ohio's governor's race, compared with about $40 million from Democratic groups, according to AdImpact. (Ohio Capital Journal)
